Intengo yezinsimbi eziyigugu yayingathathi hlangothi. Nakuba intengo yegolide, isiliva, iplatinum kanye ne-palladium inyukile ezimweni eziphansi muva nje, ayikhuphuki.
Ngaqala umsebenzi wami emakethe yezinsimbi eziyigugu ekuqaleni kwawo-1980, ngemuva nje kokuphazanyiswa kukaNelson noBunker ekuphishekeleni kwabo isiliva. Ibhodi le-COMEX lanquma ukushintsha imithetho kaHunts, owayenezela ezikhundleni zesikhathi esizayo, esebenzisa imajini ukuthenga okwengeziwe futhi ephakamisa amanani esiliva. Ngo-1980, umthetho wokuqeda izikweletu kuphela wamisa imakethe yezinkunzi futhi amanani ehla. IBhodi Yabaqondisi be-COMEX ihlanganisa abathengisi bamasheya abanethonya kanye nezinhloko zabathengisi bezinsimbi eziyigugu abahamba phambili. Njengoba bazi ukuthi isiliva selizowa, amalungu amaningi ebhodi acwayiza futhi anqekuzisa ikhanda njengoba bezisa amadeski abo okuhweba. Ngesikhathi sezikhathi ezinzima zesiliva, izinkampani ezihamba phambili zenze inzuzo yazo phakathi nokwehla nokwehla. IPhilip Brothers, lapho ngasebenza khona iminyaka engama-20, yenza imali eningi kakhulu ngokuhweba ngezinsimbi eziyigugu namafutha kangangokuthi yathenga iSalomon Brothers, isikhungo esihamba phambili sokuhweba ngezibopho kanye nebhange lokutshalwa kwezimali eWall Street.
Konke kushintshile kusukela ngawo-1980. Inkinga yezezimali yomhlaba wonke yango-2008 yavumela uMthetho i-Dodd-Frank ka-2010. Izenzo eziningi ezingase zibe nokuziphatha okubi nezingenasimilo ezazivunyelwe esikhathini esidlule sezibe semthethweni, kanye nezijeziso kulabo abawela umngcele kusukela ezinhlawulweni ezinkulu kuya ejele.
Okwamanje, intuthuko ebaluleke kakhulu emakethe yezinsimbi eziyigugu ezinyangeni zamuva nje yenzeke enkantolo kahulumeni wase-US eChicago, lapho ijaji lithole khona abaphathi ababili abaphezulu be-JPMorgan benecala ngamacala amaningana, okuhlanganisa ukukhohlisa, ukukhohlisa ngentengo yezimpahla kanye nokukhwabanisa izikhungo zezimali. ...
Amanani ensimbi eyigugu awayi ndawo. I-ETFS Physical Precious Metal Basket Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLTR) iphethe izinsimbi ezine eziyigugu ezithengiswa ezigabeni ze-CME COMEX kanye ne-NYMEX. Inkantolo yakamuva ithole abasebenzi abaphezulu benkampani ehamba phambili emhlabeni yokuhweba ngezinsimbi eziyigugu benecala. Le nhlangano ikhokha inhlawulo eqopha umlando, kodwa abaphathi kanye ne-CEO baphunyukile ekujezisweni okuqondile. UJamie Dimon ungumuntu ohlonishwayo eWall Street, kodwa izinsolo ezibhekiswe ku-JPMorgan ziphakamisa umbuzo: Ingabe inhlanzi ibolile kusukela ekuqaleni kuze kube sekupheleni?
Icala likahulumeni elibhekene nabaphathi ababili abaphezulu kanye nomthengisi we-JPMorgan lavula ithuba lokubona ukuthi isikhungo sezezimali sibusa umhlaba wonke emakethe yezinsimbi eziyigugu.
Le nhlangano yavumelana nohulumeni isikhathi eside ngaphambi kokuba icala liqale, ikhokha inhlawulo engakaze ibonwe engu-$920 million. Okwamanje, ubufakazi obunikezwe uMnyango Wezobulungiswa wase-US kanye nabashushisi bubonise ukuthi i-JPMorgan “yenze inzuzo yonyaka ephakathi kuka-$109 million kanye no-$234 million phakathi kuka-2008 no-2018.” Ngo-2020, ibhange lenze inzuzo engu-$1 billion lihweba ngegolide, isiliva, iplatinum kanye ne-palladium njengoba ubhubhane lukhuphula amanani futhi “lwadala amathuba angakaze abonwe e-arbitrage.”
I-JPMorgan iyilungu eliqavile emakethe yegolide yaseLondon, futhi amanani omhlaba anqunywa ngokuthenga nokuthengisa insimbi ngenani laseLondon, okuhlanganisa namabhizinisi e-JPMorgan. Leli bhange liphinde libe ngumdlali omkhulu ezimakethe zesikhathi esizayo ze-COMEX kanye ne-NYMEX kanye nezinye izikhungo zokuhweba ngensimbi eyigugu emhlabeni jikelele. Amakhasimende afaka phakathi amabhange aphakathi, izikhwama ze-hedge, abakhiqizi, abathengi kanye nabanye abadlali abakhulu emakethe.
Lapho ethula udaba lwakhe, uhulumeni wahlanganisa imali engenayo yebhange nabathengisi ngabanye, abamizamo yabo yathela izithelo ezinhle kakhulu:
Leli cala lembula inzuzo enkulu kanye nezinkokhelo phakathi naleso sikhathi. Kungenzeka ukuthi ibhange likhokhe inhlawulo yamaRandi ayizigidi ezingu-920, kodwa inzuzo yayidlula umonakalo. Ngo-2020, i-JPMorgan yenza imali eyanele yokukhokha uhulumeni, yashiya imali engaphezu kwamaRandi ayizigidi ezingu-80.
Izinsolo ezingathi sína kakhulu abasolwa abathathu be-JPMorgan babebhekene nazo kwakuyi-RICO kanye nozungu, kodwa laba abathathu bakhululwa. Ijaji laphetha ngokuthi abashushisi bomphakathi bahlulekile ukukhombisa ukuthi inhloso yayiyisisekelo sokulahlwa yicala lozungu. Njengoba uGeoffrey Ruffo ebekwe icala kuphela ngala macala, wakhululwa.
UMichael Novak noGreg Smith bangenye indaba. Esimemezelweni sabezindaba sangomhlaka-10 Agasti 2022, uMnyango Wezobulungiswa wase-US wabhala:
Ijaji likahulumeni wesifunda saseNyakatho ye-Illinois namuhla lithole abathengisi ababili bezinsimbi eziyigugu be-JPMorgan benecala lokukhwabanisa, ukuzama ukushintsha intengo kanye nokukhohlisa iminyaka eyisishiyagalombili ohlelweni lokushintsha imakethe oluhilela izinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo zezinsimbi eziyigugu ezihilela izinkulungwane zokuthengiselana okungekho emthethweni.
UGreg Smith, oneminyaka engu-57, waseScarsdale, eNew York, wayengumqondisi omkhulu kanye nomhwebi wesigaba se-JPMorgan i-New York Precious Metals, ngokusho kwemibhalo yenkantolo kanye nobufakazi obethulwe enkantolo. UMichael Novak, oneminyaka engu-47, waseMontclair, eNew Jersey, ungumqondisi ophethe ohola isigaba se-JPMorgan sezinsimbi eziyigugu emhlabeni jikelele.
Ubufakazi bobunhloli babonisa ukuthi kusukela cishe ngoMeyi 2008 kuya ku-Agasti 2016, abamangalelwa, kanye nabanye abahwebi esigabeni sezinsimbi eziyigugu se-JPMorgan, bahileleke ekukhohliseni okukhulu, ekuphatheni imakethe, kanye namasu okukhwabanisa. Abamangalelwa bafaka imiyalo ababehlose ukuyikhansela ngaphambi kokukhishwa ukuze basunduze intengo ye-oda ababehlose ukuyigcwalisa kolunye uhlangothi lwemakethe. Abamangalelwa bahileleka ezinkulungwaneni zokuhweba ngokukhwabanisa ezinkontilekeni zesikhathi esizayo zegolide, isiliva, iplatinum kanye ne-palladium ezithengiswa kwi-New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) kanye ne-Commodity Exchange (COMEX), eziqhutshwa yizinkampani ze-CME Group exchanges. bangena emakethe ulwazi olungamanga noludukisayo mayelana nokuhlinzekwa kweqiniso kanye nesidingo sezinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo zezinsimbi eziyigugu.
“Isinqumo sejaji lanamuhla sibonisa ukuthi labo abazama ukuphatha kabi izimakethe zethu zezimali zomphakathi bazoshushiswa futhi babhekane necala,” kusho uMsizi woMmeli Jikelele uKenneth A. Polite Jr. weCandelo Lobugebengu loMnyango Wezobulungiswa. “Ngaphansi kwalesi sinqumo, uMnyango Wezobulungiswa ugwebe abadayisi bezimali abayishumi baseWall Street, okuhlanganisa i-JPMorgan Chase, i-Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, i-Deutsche Bank, i-Bank of Nova Scotia, kanye noMorgan Stanley. Lezi zigwebo ziqokomisa ukuzibophezela koMnyango ekushushiseni labo abenza ukuzithemba kwabatshalizimali kube sezingeni eliphezulu ezimakethe zethu zezimpahla.”
“Eminyakeni edlule, abamangalelwa kuthiwa babeke izinkulungwane zama-oda mbumbulu ezinsimbi eziyigugu, bedala amaqhinga okuyenga abanye ukuba benze amadili amabi,” kusho uLuis Quesada, umqondisi osizayo we-FBI's Criminal Investigation Division. “Isinqumo sanamuhla sibonisa ukuthi kungakhathaliseki ukuthi uhlelo luyinkimbinkimbi noma luhlala isikhathi eside kangakanani, i-FBI ifuna ukuletha enkantolo labo abahilelekile kulezo zigebengu.”
Ngemva kwecala lamasonto amathathu, uSmith watholakala enecala elilodwa lokuzama ukulungisa amanani, icala elilodwa lokukhwabanisa, icala elilodwa lokukhwabanisa izimpahla, kanye namacala ayisishiyagalombili okukhwabanisa ngentambo okubandakanya isikhungo sezezimali. UNovak watholakala enecala elilodwa lokuzama ukulungisa amanani, icala elilodwa lokukhwabanisa, icala elilodwa lokukhwabanisa izimpahla, kanye namacala ayi-10 okukhwabanisa ngentambo okubandakanya isikhungo sezezimali. Usuku lokugweba alukakabekwa okwamanje.
Abanye abadayisi ababili bezinsimbi eziyigugu be-JPMorgan, uJohn Edmonds noChristian Trunz, bagwetshwa ngaphambilini emacaleni ahlobene. Ngo-Okthoba 2018, u-Edmonds wavuma icala elilodwa lokukhwabanisa izimpahla kanye nelinye lokwakha ubuqili bokudluliswa kwempahla ngentambo, ukukhwabanisa izimpahla, ukulungisa intengo, kanye nokukhohlisa eConnecticut. Ngo-Agasti 2019, uTrenz wavuma icala elilodwa lokwakha ubuqili kanye nelinye lokukhwabanisa e-Eastern District yaseNew York. U-Edmonds noTrunz balinde isigwebo.
NgoSepthemba 2020, i-JPMorgan yavuma ukuthi yenza ukukhwabanisa ngentambo: (1) ukuhweba ngokungemthetho kwezinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo zensimbi eyigugu emakethe; (2) ukuhweba ngokungemthetho e-US Treasury Futures Market kanye ne-US Treasury Secondary Market kanye ne-Secondary Bond Market (CASH). I-JPMorgan yangena esivumelwaneni sokushushisa seminyaka emithathu esihlehlisiwe lapho ikhokha khona imali engaphezu kwezigidi ezingama-$920 ngezinhlawulo zobugebengu, ukushushiswa, kanye nokubuyiselwa kwezisulu, kanti i-CFTC kanye ne-SEC bamemezela izinqumo ezifanayo ngosuku olufanayo.
Leli cala liphenywe yihhovisi lendawo le-FBI eNew York. I-Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Enforcement Division inikeze usizo kulolu daba.
Leli cala liphethwe ngu-Avi Perry, iNhloko yoKhwaphiliza Kwemakethe kanye noKhwaphiliza Okukhulu, kanye nabameli bokuqulwa kwamacala uMatthew Sullivan, uLucy Jennings kanye noChristopher Fenton beKhwaphiliza leKhwaphiliza leKhwaphiliza.
Ukukhwabanisa ngentambo okubandakanya isikhungo sezezimali kuyicala elibi kakhulu ezikhulwini, elijeziswa inhlawulo efinyelela ku-$1 million kanye nokuboshwa iminyaka efinyelela ku-30, noma kokubili. Ijaji lithole uMichael Novak noGreg Smith benecala lobugebengu obuningi, uzungu kanye nokukhohlisa.
UMichael Novak ungumphathi omkhulu kunabo bonke eJPMorgan, kodwa unabaphathi esikhungweni sezezimali. Icala likahulumeni lisekelwe ebufakazini babahwebi abancane abaye bavuma icala futhi babambisana nabashushisi ukuze bagweme izigwebo ezinzima.
Okwamanje, uNovak noSmith banabaphathi esikhungweni sezezimali, abaphethe izikhundla ezifika ku-CEO kanye nosihlalo uJamie Dimon. Njengamanje kunamalungu ayi-11 ebhodini labaqondisi lenkampani, futhi inhlawulo yamaRandi ayizigidi ezingama-920 ngokuqinisekile yayiyisenzakalo esavusa ingxoxo ebhodini labaqondisi.
UMongameli uHarry Truman wake wathi, “Umthwalo wemfanelo uphela lapha.” Kuze kube manje, izinkolelo ze-JPMorgan azikadalulwa ngisho nakancane, futhi ibhodi kanye nosihlalo/i-CEO bahlale bethule ngale ndaba. Uma idola lima phezulu ochungechungeni, khona-ke maqondana nokuphatha, ibhodi labaqondisi okungenani linomthwalo wemfanelo othile ngoJamie Dimon, owakhokha u-$84.4 million ngo-2021. Ubugebengu bezezimali obebukhona kanye buyaqondakala, kodwa ubugebengu obuphindaphindwayo eminyakeni eyisishiyagalombili noma ngaphezulu buyinto ehlukile. Kuze kube manje, konke esikuzwile ezikhungweni zezimali ezinemali yemakethe ecishe ibe ngu-$360 billion yizikriketi.
Ukuphathwa kabi kwemakethe akuyona into entsha. Ekuzivikeleni kwabo, abameli bakaNovak noMnu. Smith bathi ukukhohlisa kwakuyindlela kuphela abadayisi bamabhange, ngaphansi kwengcindezi evela kubaphathi yokwandisa inzuzo, abangancintisana ngayo nama-algorithms ekhompyutha esikhathini esizayo. Ijaji alizange lizamukele izimpikiswano zokuzivikela.
Ukuphathwa kwemakethe akuyona into entsha ezintweni zensimbi eziyigugu kanye nezimpahla, futhi okungenani kunezizathu ezimbili ezinhle zokuthi kungani kuzoqhubeka:
Isibonelo sokugcina sokuntuleka kokuxhumana kwamazwe ngamazwe ezindabeni zokulawula nezomthetho sihlobene nemakethe ye-nickel yomhlaba wonke. Ngo-2013, inkampani yaseShayina yathenga iLondon Metal Exchange. Ekuqaleni kuka-2022, lapho iRussia ihlasela i-Ukraine, amanani e-nickel akhuphukele phezulu kakhulu kunanini ngaphambili angaphezu kuka-$100,000 ngethani. Ukwanda kwakungenxa yokuthi inkampani ye-nickel yaseShayina yavula isikhundla esikhulu esifushane, iqagela ngentengo yezinsimbi ezingezona i-ferrous. Inkampani yaseShayina ilahlekelwe amaRandi ayizigidigidi eziyi-8 kodwa yagcina iphume ngokulahlekelwa cishe amaRandi ayizigidigidi eziyi-1 kuphela. Lesi sikhungo samisa okwesikhashana ukuhweba nge-nickel ngenxa yenkinga ebangelwe inani elikhulu lezikhundla esifushane. IShayina neRussia bangabadlali ababalulekile emakethe ye-nickel. Ngokumangalisayo, i-JPMorgan isezingxoxweni zokunciphisa umonakalo ovela enkingeni ye-nickel. Ngaphezu kwalokho, isigameko sakamuva se-nickel saphenduka isenzo sokukhohlisa esaholela ekutheni abahlanganyeli abaningi bemakethe abancane balahlekelwe noma banciphise inzuzo. Inzuzo yenkampani yaseShayina kanye nabaxhasi bayo bathinte abanye abahlanganyeli bemakethe. Inkampani yaseShayina ayikude kakhulu nokubanjwa ngabalawuli nabashushisi e-US naseYurophu.
Nakuba uchungechunge lwamacala asola abadayisi ngokukhohlisa, ukukhwabanisa, ukukhohlisa emakethe kanye nezinye izinsolo kuzokwenza abanye bacabange kabili ngaphambi kokuzibandakanya emisebenzini engekho emthethweni, abanye abahlanganyeli emakethe abavela ezindaweni ezingalawulwa bazoqhubeka nokukhohlisa imakethe. Isimo sezwe esibi kakhulu singandisa ukuziphatha okukhohlisayo njengoba iShayina neRussia zisebenzisa imakethe njengesikhali sezomnotho ngokumelene nezitha zaseNtshonalanga Yurophu naseMelika.
Okwamanje, ubudlelwano obuphukile, ukwehla kwamandla emali ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu emashumini eminyaka, kanye nezisekelo zokuhlinzekwa kanye nokufunwa kusikisela ukuthi insimbi eyigugu, ebilokhu ikhula iminyaka engaphezu kwamashumi amabili, izoqhubeka nokwenza ukwehla okuphezulu kanye nokuphakama okuphezulu. Igolide, insimbi eyigugu eyinhloko, yehla ngo-1999 ngo-$252.50 nge-ounce. Kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, konke ukulungiswa okukhulu kube yithuba lokuthenga. IRussia isabela ezijezisweni zomnotho ngokumemezela ukuthi igremu elilodwa legolide lisekelwa ngama-ruble angu-5,000. Ekupheleni kwekhulu leminyaka elidlule, intengo yesiliva engu-$19.50 yayingaphansi kuka-$6 nge-ounce. Iplatinum kanye ne-palladium kutholakala eNingizimu Afrika naseRussia, okungadala izinkinga zokuhlinzekwa. Iphuzu elibalulekile ukuthi insimbi eyigugu izohlala iyimpahla ezuza ekukhuphukeni kwamandla emali kanye nokuwohloka kwezepolitiki.
Igrafu ikhombisa ukuthi i-GLTR iqukethe igolide elingokoqobo, isiliva, i-palladium kanye ne-platinum bars. I-GLTR iphatha impahla engaphezu kwezigidigidi zamaRandi ayi-1.013 ngamaRandi angu-$84.60 ngesabelo ngasinye. I-ETF ihweba amasheya angu-45,291 ngosuku futhi ikhokhisa imali yokuphatha engu-0.60%.
Isikhathi sizobona ukuthi i-CEO ye-JPMorgan izokhokha yini inhlawulo ecishe ibe yi-$1 kanye nokugwetshwa kwabadayisi ababili bezinsimbi eziyigugu abaphambili. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, isimo samanje sesinye sezikhungo zezimali ezihamba phambili emhlabeni sisiza ukugcina isimo samanje. Ijaji likahulumeni lizogweba uNovak noSmith ngo-2023 ngeseluleko somnyango wokuhlolwa ngaphambi kokugwetshwa. Ukuntuleka kwerekhodi lobugebengu kungabangela ukuthi ijaji linikeze lo mbhangqwana isigwebo esingaphansi kakhulu kwesilinganiso esiphezulu, kodwa inani lisho ukuthi bazokhonza isigwebo sabo. Abathengisi babanjwa bephula umthetho futhi bazokhokha intengo. Kodwa-ke, izinhlanzi zivame ukubola kusukela ekuqaleni kuze kube sekupheleni, futhi abaphathi bangasinda cishe nge-$1 billion emalini yezabelo. Okwamanje, ukuphathwa kwemakethe kuzoqhubeka ngisho noma i-JPMorgan nezinye izikhungo ezinkulu zezimali zithatha isinyathelo.
Umbiko Wezimpahla ze-Hecht ungomunye wemibiko yezimpahla ebanzi kakhulu etholakala namuhla evela kubabhali abaphambili emikhakheni yezimpahla, ukushintshaniswa kwamanye amazwe kanye nezinsimbi eziyigugu. Imibiko yami yamasonto onke ihlanganisa ukunyakaza kwemakethe yezimpahla ezingaphezu kuka-29 ezahlukene futhi inikeza izincomo ze-bullish, ze-bearish kanye nezingakhethi, amathiphu okuhweba aqondisayo kanye nokuqonda okusebenzayo kwabahwebi. Nginikeza amanani amahle kanye nesivivinyo samahhala sesikhathi esilinganiselwe sababhalisile abasha.
U-Andy wasebenza eWall Street iminyaka ecishe ibe ngu-35, okuhlanganisa neminyaka engu-20 emnyangweni wokuthengisa wePhilip Brothers (kamuva waba yiSalomon Brothers wabe eseyingxenye yeCitigroup).
Ukudalulwa: Mina/thina asinazo izikhundla zesitoko, izinketho noma izikhundla ezifanayo ze-derivatives kunoma yiziphi izinkampani ezishiwo futhi angihleli ukuthatha izikhundla ezinjalo emahoreni angu-72 alandelayo. Ngibhale lesi sihloko mina futhi siveza umbono wami. Angikaze ngithole noma yisiphi isinxephezelo (ngaphandle kwe-Seeking Alpha). Anginabo ubudlelwano bebhizinisi nanoma yiziphi izinkampani ezibalwe kulesi sihloko.
Ukudalulwa Okwengeziwe: Umbhali ubambe izikhundla ku-futures, izinketho, imikhiqizo ye-ETF/ETN, kanye namasheya ezimpahla ezimakethe zezimpahla. Lezi zikhundla ezinde nezifushane zivame ukushintsha usuku lonke.